Gold: What Is The Economy Usually Doing When It Goes Up?
Gold: What Is The Economy Usually Doing When It Goes Up?
Research proves wrong the idea that gold reliably rises during recessions, says EWI President Robert Prechter.
September 21, 2010
By Elliott Wave International
...If gold isn’t going up when the economy is contracting, when is it going up? Table 4 (see chart on p. 24 of this free Club EWI report -- Ed.) answers the question: All the huge gains in gold have come while the economy was expanding. This is true of the three most dramatic gold gains of the past century:
(1) Congress changed the official price of gold from $20.67 to $35 per ounce in 1934, during an economic expansion. The gain against the dollar was 69 percent.
(2) The entire bull market from 1970 to 1980 occurred during an economic expansion... [Of] the $815 per ounce that gold rose from 1970 to 1980, $725 worth of it came while the economy was expanding.
(3) The entire bull market from 2001 to the present occurred during an economic expansion... [Of] the $748 per ounce that gold has risen since February 2001, $726 worth of it has come while the economy was expanding.
Even lesser rises in gold, such as the two big rallies during the 1980s, came during economic expansions. So the biggest gains in gold, by far, have occurred while the economy was in expansion, not contraction.
Why is such the case? Simple: During expansions, liquidity is available, and it has to go somewhere. Sometimes it goes into stocks, sometimes it goes into gold, and sometimes it goes into both. During times of extreme credit inflation, such as we have experienced over the past three decades, the moves in these markets during economic expansions are likewise extreme. When recession hits, liquidity dries up, and investors stop buying. During depressions, they sell assets with a vengeance.
Of course, we socionomists do not believe in the external causality of investment price movements. Recessions and expansions do not make investment prices move up and down. Fluctuations in social mood propel the economy, liquidity and movements in investment prices. So the only reason we bother with studies like this is to de-bunk various commonly held views of financial causality. Now we know: The idea that gold reliably rises during recessions and depressions is wrong; in fact, like most such passionately accepted lore, it’s backwards.
Finish reading this 16-chapter paper online now, free! Download Robert Prechter's FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook.
Here's what else you'll learn:
* Why Gold Is Still Money
* What Long Term Analysis of Gold Stocks Shows
* Study: Does Gold Always Go Up in Recessions and Depressions?
* True or False: Gold Is Better Than Stocks During Expansions
* What’s Next for Gold?
* Elliott Waves in the Silver Market
* MORE
Keep reading this free report now -- Download Robert Prechter's FREE 40-Page Gold and Silver eBook.
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Gold: What Is The Economy Usually Doing When It Goes Up?. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Annuity Definition
What Are Indexed Annuities?
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How to Forecast Markets Using Technical Analysis
Your Free Chance to Learn How to Forecast Markets Using Technical Analysis
EWI's Senior Tutorial Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy gives you practical lessons -- free
September 17, 2010
By Elliott Wave International
There are two camps of market analysts out there: the fundamental camp and the technical one. Fundamental analysts look at things like the GDP, unemployment, interest rates, etc. to make logical assumptions about where the stock market is going.
Technical analysts use none of that. They look at the market's internals to gauge the trend: things like momentum, trend channels -- and yes, Elliott wave patterns.
And this is your free chance to learn how they do it.
We've put together a free 54-page Club EWI resource for you, "The Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook." Below is a short excerpt from chapter 3. Enjoy! (For details on how to read this free report in full, look below.)
The Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook
Chapter 3: How To Integrate Technical Indicators Into an Elliott Wave Forecast
By EWI's Senior Tutorial Instructor Jeffrey Kennedy
I love a good love-hate relationship, and that’s what I’ve got with technical indicators. Technical indicators are those fancy computerized studies that you frequently see at the bottom of price charts that are supposed to tell you what the market is going to do next (as if they really could). The most common studies include MACD, Stochastics, RSI and ADX, just to name a few.
I often hate technical studies because they divert my attention from what’s most important -- PRICE. ... Nevertheless, I have found a way to live with them, and I do use them. Here’s how: Rather than using technical indicators as a means to gauge momentum or pick tops and bottoms, I use them to identify potential trade setups.
Out of the hundreds of technical indicators I have worked with over the years, my favorite study is MACD (an acronym for Moving Average Convergence-Divergence). ... Even though the standard settings for MACD are 12/26/9, I like to use 12/25/9 (it’s just me being different). An example of MACD is shown in Figure 6 (Coffee).
Coffee - December Contract Daily Data
The simplest trading rule for MACD is to buy when the Signal line (the thin line) crosses above the MACD line (the thick line), and sell when the Signal line crosses below the MACD line. Although many people use MACD this way, I choose not to... I like to focus on different information that I’ve observed and named: Hooks, Slingshots and Zero-Line Reversals. Once I explain these, you’ll understand why I’ve learned to love technical indicators. ...
Read the rest of the 50-page "Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook" online now, free! All you need is to create a free Club EWI profile. Here's what else you'll learn:
Chapter 1: How the Wave Principle Can Improve Your Trading
Chapter 2: How To Confirm You Have the Right Wave Count
Chapter 3: How To Integrate Technical Indicators Into an Elliott Wave Forecast
Chapter 4: Origins and Applications of the Fibonacci Sequence
Chapter 5: How To Apply Fibonacci Math to Real-World Trading
Chapter 6: How To Draw and Use Trendlines
Chapter 7: Time Divergence: An Old Method Revisited
Chapter 8: Head and Shoulders: An Old-School Approach
Chapter 9: Pick Your Poison... And Your Protective Stops: Four Kinds of Protective Stops
Get more lessons like the one above in the free 50-page Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook. Learn more and download your free copy here
This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Your Free Chance to Learn How to Forecast Markets Using Technical Analysis. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
Annuity Definition
Indexed Annuities
What is a Tax Deferred Indexed Annuity? - Fixed Annuity Definition, Fixed Indexed Annuities, Lifetime Income AnnuityWhat is a Tax Deferred Indexed Annuity?
Tax-deferred indexed annuities are contracts between you and the insurance company with guaranteed interest and guaranteed annuity income options. There are no upfront sales commissions or administrative fees during the life of your indexed annuity.
Advantages of Tax Deferred Indexed Annuities include tax deferral, stability, may avoid probate, liquidity features, guaranteed income and guaranteed lifetime income riders.
Your equity-indexed annuity, like other fixed annuities, also promises to pay a minimum interest rate. The rate that will be applied will not be less than this minimum guaranteed rate even if the index-linked interest rate is lower. The value of your index annuity also will not drop below a guaranteed minimum. For example, many indexed annuities guarantee the minimum value will never be less than 80 percent of the premium paid, plus at least 1% in annual interest (less any partial withdrawals). The guaranteed value is the minimum amount available during a term of withdrawals, as well as for some annuitizations and death benefits. The annuity life insurance company will adjust the value of the indexed annuity at the end of each term to reflect any index increases.
In some indexed annuities, the average of an index's value is used rather than the actual value of the index on a specified date. The index averaging may occur at the beginning, the end, or throughout the entire term of the index annuity.
One of the primary advantages of deferred indexed annuities is the opportunity to accumulate a substantial sum of money by allowing your premium and interest to grow tax-deferred. Unlike taxable investments, you pay no taxes on your indexed annuity interest until you begin to take withdrawals or receive income. This allows your money to grow faster than in a taxable account, because you earn interest on the money that would have otherwise been paid in taxes.
Your tax-deferred indexed annuity is stable and safe. State insurance department laws require annuity insurance companies establish and maintain reserves equal to the cash surrender value of your annuity contract at all times. In addition, state laws require annuity life insurance companies maintain minimum amounts of capital and surplus for further contract owner protection.
Annuity life insurance companies invest your premium dollars in a diversity of investments that are closely regulated by the insurance departments. These long-term investments ensure the stability of the annuity company and help to provide you with a competitive yield.
In the case of premature death, your beneficiaries have the accumulated funds within your indexed annuity available to them, with most companies and may avoid the expense, delay and publicity of probate.
Most indexed annuities provide you with opportunities to withdraw funds at any time (subject to applicable surrender charges). Most index annuity contracts allow some form penalty-free withdrawals after the first contract anniversary. Some indexed annuities also have available certain riders which increase liquidity in the event of confinement to a nursing home or if diagnosed with a terminal illness.
Tax deferred indexed annuities provide you with a guaranteed income within a tax-deferred indexed annuity. You have the ability to choose from several different income options, including payments for a specified number of years or income for life, no matter how long you live. With non-qualified (non-IRA, 401k) plans, a portion of each annuity income payment represents return of premium which is not taxed, thereby reducing your tax liability from your indexed annuity income payments.
It is important to understand the features and trade-offs available so you can choose the index annuity that is right for you. Be aware that it may be misleading to compare one index annuity to another unless you compare all the other features of each index annuity. You must decide for yourself what combination of index annuity benefits makes the most sense for you.
Annuity Definition
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Indexed Annuities
